On a weekend when Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Juventus all dropped points, the Premier League’s title chasers also stumbled.

Arsenal were held to a bleak goalless draw by Everton while Liverpool managed to make four-goal thriller with Fulham feel like one point gained rather than two dropped. Manchester City were three minutes away from belatedly regaining their footing in the title race before Amad Diallo inspired Manchester United to a 2-1 derby day victory.

Chelsea, the one side desperate to avoid any talk of the title race, were the only team at the sharp end of the table to collect all three points this weekend, despite doing their best to throw away a victory over Brentford on Sunday night.

Here’s how this calamitous round of fixtures has affected Opta‘s statistically backed predictions.

The formation of the chasing pack behind Liverpool significantly shifted this weekend. Chelsea, who started the round as fourth favourites, leapfrogged Manchester City in the predictive standings.

The Blues boast a 5.5% chance of winning the title. “I don’t even know what a title race is, to be honest,” Nicolas Jackson joked after scoring the decisive goal in Sunday’s 2-1 win which took his side to within two points of first place. “I don’t even look at the table,” the forward insisted. That could soon change if Chelsea continue to narrow the gap up to Liverpool.

Chelsea are still most likely to finish third (35.5%) and have a 5.3% chance of missing out on the top four entirely. Arsenal remain Liverpool’s closest challengers, finishing above the Reds in 10.6% of the 10,000 simulations which Opta’s advanced statistical model computes.

The Gunners have grown increasingly reliant on set-piece situations going forward, a worrying trend which was painfully evident during a tepid stalemate at home to Everton on Saturday. Arteta’s side have scored just 15 times from open play in 16 top-flight matches – fewer than relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Liverpool have no problem finding the back of the net, even when reduced to ten players. Arne Slot’s irrepressible outfit twice fell behind at home to Fulham on Saturday afternoon yet emerged with a point and fresh impetus in the title race.

The Reds may only have a two-point advantage above Chelsea – and a game in hand away to Everton after the derby postponement – but the supercomputer gives Liverpool a whopping 82.0% chance of winning just their second title of the Premier League era.

Manchester City, who are chasing their fifth crown on the spin, are left with just a 1.9% chance of finishing top of the pile once again. Across the last seven Premier League fixtures since Halloween, Pep Guardiola’s side have collected a pitiful four points – the same tally as rock-bottom Southampton who sacked manager Russell Martin on Sunday.

There is little danger of Guardiola losing his job wherever City finish, but top spot is looking increasingly unlikely.

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